Orlando Market Check-In: September Sales by County, in Plain English

Every month the sales data comes out, and every month the story looks a little different depending on which county you are standing in. That is the part most headlines miss: Central Florida is not one market, it is five counties moving at different speeds.

The newest published numbers cover September resale closings across Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Lake, and Polk. Here is the one stat I am watching, what it means in plain English, and what it suggests for buyers and sellers in each county.

The one stat

Resale closings in the four counties closest to the Orlando core, Orange, Seminole, Osceola, and Lake, were up 0.5 percent in September compared with a year earlier. Essentially flat, and in this market flat is meaningful.

The outlier is Polk. Closings there fell 11.1 percent year over year, the steepest drop in the six-county Central Florida region, which was down 3.3 percent overall. So the picture is not gloomy and not booming: it is steady in the core and soft in Polk.

September resale closings, county by county

These are existing-home resale closings reported through Stellar MLS and compiled by Mortgage Expert for September 2026. One honest note on reading them: closings measure homes that went under contract weeks earlier, so September closings mostly reflect August contracts, not what is happening on the street this week.

What it means for each county

• Osceola, up 2.2 percent. Kissimmee and Poinciana saw the healthiest year-over-year sales of the five counties. Buyers are still active at entry-level price points, which is where Osceola does most of its business.
• Lake, up 2.0 percent. Clermont, Minneola, and the rest of the county have the most balanced feel right now: homes priced against recent sales move, and homes priced above them sit.
• Orange, down 0.6 percent. Orlando's core county is essentially flat. Inventory has been building for months, so buyers have real choices and sellers need a pricing strategy, not just a list price.
• Seminole, down 0.5 percent. Home to some of the area's strongest schools and most established neighborhoods, Seminole demand is steady but picky. Homes that show well and price well still sell.
• Polk, down 11.1 percent. Polk is correcting from the biggest run-up: Lakeland, Haines City, and the corridor toward Davenport drew heavy volume during the boom. Today, buyers there have the most negotiating room of the five counties, and sellers need the most patience with pricing.

And the mortgage rate

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate held at 7.40 percent for the week of October 15, 2026, according to Freddie Mac, unchanged from the week before. A year earlier the average was 6.27 percent.

Rates are the quiet reason this market feels different than it did a few years ago: at 7.4 percent, the same monthly payment buys less house, and that filters into every county on the list. It is also part of why the county split looks the way it does. Buyers follow affordability, and right now affordability leans toward Polk and Osceola, which is exactly where sales held up or grew.

The takeaway

One line: the Orlando-area core is balanced and steady, Polk is the soft spot, and rates are keeping buyer expectations in check. None of that means you should wait, and none of it means you should rush.

The winning move is the same in every one of these counties: compare homes against what has actually sold this fall, not what they sold for in 2023, and run the monthly payment at today's rate before anything else.

Here is what we can do next

If you are wondering what these county numbers mean for your street, your budget, or your timeline, that is exactly the conversation I am here for. We can look at recent sales in the specific neighborhood you are considering, run the payment on today's rate, and figure out what comes next.

I'm here whenever you're ready. Talk to you soon.

Where these numbers come from